Wednesday 6 March 2013


2015 and the battle for the soul of NGF

Uche Igwe
It is no longer a secret that President Goodluck Jonathan is determined to force out the Chairman of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum, Rotimi Amaechi, of Rivers State and replace him with his loyalist, Ibrahim Shema of Katsina State. Whispers that the NGF is becoming too powerful, have ostensibly, made the most powerful Nigerian very restless. The President had tried several indirect efforts to discredit the forum through his cronies such as Chief Edwin Clark and Godswill Orubebe before losing his cool and going for the jugular, all by himself. The controversial former information Minister and alter ego of the President once asked Dr. Jonathan to ban the NGF as the organisation was becoming a “threat to democracy” in the country.
Last week, the Presidency moved to actualise their desire by attempting what would have resulted to the removal of current NGF chairman. In what was seen as part of the permutation, the President’s loyalists hastily formed the Peoples Democratic Party Governors’ Forum and handpicked Godswill Akpabio of Akwa Ibom State to head it. Through a combination of threat, intense lobbying and blackmail, the Presidency allegedly recruited Governor Gabriel Suswam of Benue State, Theodore Orji of Abia State, Jonah Jang of Plateau State and Peter Obi of Anambra State to push their agenda.  It was a turbulent session as Governor Akpabio worked tirelessly on the plot that met a stiff resistance from the Governor of Niger State Babangida Aliyu. It was reported that the duo had a tough shouting match that almost resulted in a physical fight during one of the sessions.
Three things (may be four) jumped at me as I continue to reflect on the emerging scenario. Democracy is about dissent, contestation, debate, competition, etc. Why then is President Jonathan seemingly indisposed to these? What benefit will he derive from a castrated and rubber stamp NGF? Now, is this all about NGF as an association or about Amaechi as a person?  President Jonathan has not formally announced his intention to run for the Presidency in 2015, the Abuja court judgment clearing him to do so notwithstanding. Could it be that this new style is to bulldoze through despite his palpable public disproval and discontent with the performance of his government?
Many a political observer contend that the Nigerian Governors’ Forum under Amaechi’s watch has acquired a reputation for debate. It was re-engineered as an apolitical, programme-driven policy hub equipped to service the needs of state governments regardless of party affiliations. Its decisions mattered as never before. Granted, it has often collectively disagreed with the position of the Federal Government on issues such as excess crude oil accounts, sovereign wealth fund, constitution review, local government autonomy among others but such are signs of a flourishing democracy.  Some people who have a bone to pick with their governors such as Jubril Aminu of Adamawa State and Austin Okpara of Rivers State have continuously misconstrued the forum as being overbearing and have canvassed that the NGF should be checked. Could this latest onslaught be the mission of the President  and his men? Those who know better suggest that a wiser option to take (at least politically) would have been to lobby the governors instead. I am told that the governors control a majority of the delegates at the PDP convention. They also control the state Houses of Assembly and any constitutional amendment will require their buy-in and concurrence. Is it not better and politically deft to get them on one’s side rather than antagonise them?
That said, many people will like to find out whether Jonathan and his men are simply after the NGF as an organisation or Amaechi as a person. Since the rumour mill had it (rightly or wrongly) that the Rivers State Governor and his Jigawa counterpart may be contemplating taking a shot at the Nigerian top position, it has been one problem after another for the duo. Recently, the Rivers State Governor and one of the loyalists of the President were engaged in an open verbal war, ostensibly linked to the subject. Impeccable reports have it that agents of one of the anti-corruption institutions have been combing Jigawa and Rivers allegedly in search of “useful” materials to further the war.
Now one other point is that President Jonathan has yet to declare interest formally to contest the 2015 election, though the rumour mill has it that he already has a campaign office that is up and running. The President has asked Nigerians to allow him to concentrate on his work and wait till 2014 when he will make up his mind. Some of the moves to capture the soul of the party and that of the NGF could be seen as part of the calculation to clear real and imagined hurdles that could stand on his way to clinching the nomination of his party.  How far they can go with the current style remains a subject of conjecture.
Clearly, President Jonathan and his men might have won the first phase of the battle. They whipped Amaechi thoroughly as he watched his former allies in the forum hurriedly ditch him in compliance with the Presidential script and even indicate interest in his position. They have hurriedly put together a PDP Governors’ Forum and enthroned someone from the same zone to take charge — just to spite him the more.
However informed observers opine that the victory of the President may be all but temporary. A looming war constitutes of many battles. He has many more to fight ahead. The ultimate one is with the Nigerian people if he decides to contest the Presidency again in 2015. No doubt he is bent on manipulating the PDP to nominate him as their flag bearer. He may succeed  in having his men manipulate the party machinery to make way for him come 2015. He may also continue to arm-twist the governors to submission by threatening, cajoling them with anti-corruption agencies. He may also get away with that. What he may find difficult is to placate ordinary Nigerians who are daily recipients of the direct consequences of his administration’s perceived poor governance delivery.  Poverty and infrastructure decay are an existential reality all over the country. Insecurity is worsening as the attacks by Boko Haram insurgents spread to other states beyond the Northern region. Mystery killings and inexplicable disappearances have almost become daily occurrences. Corruption and impunity appear to have become state policy. Infrastructural decay is aggravating.  There were those who were swayed by the doctrine of necessity and felt he should continue in 2011. There were yet others who assumed his PhD degree would mean a more result-oriented and innovative approach to governance while many others felt being from a minority group would ginger him up  to make a difference. As keen observers reckon, Jonathan may be preparing to make history as the first Nigerian president to lose election as an incumbent.

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